Georgia on my mind

Did Victoria Nuland "engineer" that one, too?

via Bluesky account of Jason Jay Smart

I’m writing this note being impressed by riots in Georgia. They are similar to the Ukrainian Maidan in many ways - a de facto pro Russian political party won the election by claiming that they are not at all pro Russian. Then they prove that they were indeed pro Russian by suspending the talks with the European Union, which alienated even some of their own voters.

Of course, the outcome might be different. However, there is one thing we can safely bet on: someone will (or maybe already does) present these riots as an American aggression. Encroachment. Broken promise not to expand beyond the German Democratic Republic. Victoria Nuland did it, probably it’s her in this photo.

I really wish someone who believes this version of history could explain to me, how they imagine it in practice. Are all the protesters paid actors? Maybe even “crisis actors”, like in Alex Jones conspiracy theories? Or maybe they are unwilling puppets, manipulated by the Americans hidden in the shadows?

A very typical example of the “Nuland conspiracy” theory

I love good conspiracy theories - I’m an old school fan of “X-Files”! - but a good theory should have all the answers about the mundane technicalities. Who are the people facing police brutality? Maybe they don’t exist? Even assuming they do it for the money from Victoria Nuland: how much they would have to pay you to make you agree to be beaten and kicked by the police, sprayed with tear gas and hosed from water cannons?

Why is that nobody (either in Ukraine in 2014 or today in Georgia) say “OK, I didn’t sign for this, I won’t risk my life for this fistful of dollars” (substitute the “fistful” for the amount you imagine in your conspiracy theory). I will reveal the truth and make more money on Joe Rogan or Tucker Carlson!

Even if just for argument’s sake, consider the alternative explication. Eastsplication, if I could say so.

Much like in Ukraine, in Georgia most of the population possess firsthand knowledge on the quality of living in Russia and in the West (including the countries that managed to escape from the Russian sphere of influence, that is, they were “encroached on” by the “broken promises not to expand”). In a typical scenario, they have friends and relatives in Russia, but they also have friends and relatives in Poland or Germany, who drive Uber or manage a khinkali restaurant there.

Please notice the lack of symmetry. People migrate from Georgia (or Ukraine) to the West to earn some money, and either settle there for good or return some day with a not-too-old mercedes and enough savings to build a house. They don’t go to Russia (there are exceptions, but they are extremely rare and reserved for rather specific professions, such as espionage or organized crime). In a typical scenario, you send money to help your relatives in Russia and get help from your relatives in Poland.

Most people desire a better life for their children. So just imagine yourself in Georgia (or Ukraine). You do know that people in Poland have a better life than those in Russia. You know that we all used to have the same starting point in 1990. So you want your country (Georgia or Ukraine) to become more like Poland and less like Russia, and you also know that this transformation is feasible.

It does not necessarily translate into your voting behavior. Maybe you don’t vote at all (“if it changed anything, they’d abolish it”, right?). Maybe you did vote for the populist party because you wanted to “be heard”, like the Brexiters. Maybe just like in the “leopard eating faces” party” joke, you voted for the pro-Russian party because you thought they weren’t actually that much pro-Russian.

In all these three scenarios mentioned above, you used to hope that the central tenet of the politics in your country is to “go West” (life is peaceful there). So when your president or prime minister announces a sharp turn to the East - you go to your main square to protest. The future of your children is what motivates you - not Victoria Nuland, not “neocon conspiracy”, not CIA money.

The conspiracy theorists - like Robert Perry in the article quoted in the screenshot above - frequently mention some “smoking gun” arguments. “Nuland passed out cookies to anti-Yanukovych demonstrators at the Maidan square”. Apparently, Perry believed people in Eastern Europe will do anything just for cookies.

It must be a really good bakery. Can I get the address?

My non-conspiracy theory is not based on denying that Western politicians do support the protesters. Why not? I don’t deny they sometimes might indeed engage in photo-ops with some cookies and coffee. But it does not prove the protests were “engineered” by the West.

When I see protesters in Georgia (or Ukraine), I root for them. I would like to see my government helping the girl in the photo with more than just cookies. Maybe she has different political views than mine, but it’s only natural to support a peaceful demonstrator rather than the excessively brutal police. I also remember that I can now enjoy Western standards of living thanks to similar demonstrators in Poland during communist times.

In my opinion, Western politicians such as Victoria Nuland go to places like Maidan, not to “engineer” protests, but simply to boost their popularity on the domestic front. If you prefer the conspiracy version, that’s fine, but please tell me you actually believe people in Eastern Europe are desperate enough to die for cookies?