Let Ukraine fight with full capacity

You know these people - they say Ukraine is not allowed to do what Russia does. Russia can target ships calling Ukrainian ports, but Ukraine cannot target Russian ships. Ukraine cannot bomb Moscow, while Russia can bomb Kyiv. Ukraine cannot use cluster munitions and depleted uranium, but Russia can. Russia can jail journalists but don’t Ukraine even dare to arrest even an obvious Russian agent. When Russia shells Donbas, that’s humanitarian military operation, but when Ukraine shells Donbas, that’s genocide - and so on, and so on.

Dude, don’t you think Russia would be already doing this, having the possibility? (random Twitter reaction to Ukraine enforcing Black Sea blockade)

Sometimes there is no justification whatsoever. You can see that the author simply loves Russia so much, that Russia is always right in their eyes. You can’t argue with that.

Sometimes, however, there is some justification. “You can’t poke a bear! You can’t fight a nuclear superpower! Ukraine should surrender to prevent World War III! Don’t escalate the conflict!”. Some people with this attitude have even appeared here in the comments section.

But what if there is no bear after all? (random Twitter reaction to Moscow bombing)

I don’t believe in nuclear threat in Ukraine. I already have explained my reasoning in detail - but it was in the comments section again, so I will recap it here.

First of all: Putin’s has to please his kleptocratic oligarchs, otherwise they will side with the next Prigozhin. They don’t want World War III, not even with the impossible outcome of Russian victory, because for every Russian the biggest privilege is to enjoy Western indulgence. The oligarchs (and especially their lovers & children) want to drive Western cars, smoke Western cigarettes, use Western smartphones, wear Western clothes and vacation in Western resorts.

Remember: not even the biggest Russian patriot would actually prefer Lada over Toyota or Crimea over Disneyland. They are literally the last to want to see Paris burning (even counting the actual French).

Apparently, the decision making centers in Kyiv were “immediately” destroyed last July. At least if you believe Russian propaganda. (random Twitter reaction to the attack on Chonhar bridge)

Seeing failure of his Plan A (quick takeover of Kyiv), Plan B (forced vassalization via “peace treaty”), Plan C (Wagner troops taking over Donbas), etc., Putin has to stick to the Plan Z. It’s a prolonged conflict with no chance for Russian victory, but also no Russian decisive defeat.

Plan Z is not perfect, but it does offer Russian oligarchs plenty of opportunities to profiteer. Someone has to bypass the sanctions and smuggle microchips. Someone pockets the ample funds for restarting Russian military industry (probably the same person who “privatised” the Soviet-build factories to sell them for scrap). Someone knows the exact timetable of the next stages of rouble collapse - and this information is priceless on Forex. So as longs a Putin does not do anything stupid that would end the war prematurely - he and his oligarchs make one big happy kleptocratic family.

That’s why I’m not afraid of “poking the bear” or “escalating the conflict”. How can it escalate? Russia cannot invade Ukraine again or bomb Ukrainian cities more intensely as they already do (they run at full capacity). As long as the remnants of Russian army are bogged in this quagmire, they also cannot invade anyone else. So what is there to worry about?

To my surprise, some people still fall for the drunken rants of Dmitry Medvedev, who keeps promising “Armageddons”, “judgement days”, “strikes at decision making centres”, “total destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure” and what not, if Ukraine or the West “crosses” some imaginary “red lines”. I literally cannot comprehend how it is possible NOT to see that these threats are empty - simply for their sheer repetition, if nothing else.

I didn’t count how many times Medvedev threatened the West with nukes over this conflict, but I think I managed to find the first instance. It was the third day of the war - 26 February 2022 (below: a snippet from Al Jazeera).

Photo credits: [Yekaterina Shtukina/Sputnik via AP], snippet from Al Jazeera, 26.2.2022

The West was supposed to be destroyed if it supplies Ukraine with lethal weapons. Then Ukraine was supposed to be destroyed if it attacks Russian territory. Especially if they sink Russian ship. Or if they hit Moscow. Especially if they hit Kremlin.

They did all of that. And?

In July 2023 Medvedev was threaening the West with “Judgement day” if Ukraine uses Storm Shadow missiles to hit targets in Crimea. The next day Ukraine did precisely that, Russian military bloggers were circulating photos of the debris to prove that the missile that hit the Chonhar Bridge was indeed a Storm Shadow. Of course, nothing happened. And yet he keeps repeating the same worn out phrases and some people in the West still fall for this crap.

I think the most ridiculous instance was in September 2022, when Russia announced “annexation” of territories they did not even fully control. But that was enough for pro-Russian propagandists to fantasise that Ukraine was now in checkmate - they can’t regain these territories (including Kherson) as they were now a part of Russian territory and therefore “under  Moscow's nuclear umbrella”.

I still can’t believe anyone took this seriously! A snippet from: Mark Trevelyan, “Russia says seized Ukrainian lands are under its nuclear protection”, Reuters, 18.10.2022

Ukraine ignored this BS and liberated Kherson two months later. The pro-Russian propagandists quickly forgot their own “prophecies”. The annexations were announced almost a year ago but nothing happened in practice - the border checkpoints are where they used to be, passenger cars still have Ukrainian license plates. Nobody talks of a “nuclear umbrella over annexed territories” anymore.

The funny thing is that Putin never draws these “red lines” himself. I don’t think he ever used this expression or anything remotely similar. Putin’s remarks are intentionally vague, it’s up to his henchmen and propagandists to try to translate them to human language.

A rare moment of clarity on Skabayeva show (via TheKremlinYap)

If you watch Skabayeva or Soloviev shows, you know that even the Russian propagandists are sick and tired of talking about “red lines” and “judgement days”. Just how many times can you repeat the same empty threats? If Ukraine can hit not just Moscow, but the very Kremlin with a drone and nothing happens, where do you draw the next imaginary “red line”, on Putin’s dacha?

I guess the last group of people still afraid of “poking the bear” are the pro-Russian non-Russians. They seem to believe that Putin can surprise us with some Wunderwaffe he keeps hidden in the taiga.

If one of them is reading this then - please, please, please: provide us with some plausible explanation, what this Wunderwaffe consists of, where it is hidden, why it hasn't been used yet. While we wait, let me entertain you with a joke from the communist times, slightly paraphrased (the original version is more vulgar).

What is this: it is no wonder and it can’t be used as a weapon? Russian wonder weapon.

The only thing I’m afraid of is that Plan Z will work out and Putin manages to turn it into a prolonged stalemate. That should be prevented at any cost. Ukraine should get as much Western weapons as it needs to push Russia back to the 1991 border, without any strings attached such as “don’t use long range missiles to hit Russian mainland”. We can’t expect Ukraine to fight with one arm tied.