14 Comments

Maybe offtopic, maybe not. I noticed mention of Lumumba street, name dear to me, because student dorms in Łódź are placed along Lumumba street as well. Name is so attached to them, that whole students' housing area in Łódź is informally named Lumumbowo. Seems like post-soviet nations have dear attachment to this Congolese comrade.

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It's funny you mention Łódź... Until this note, I was always sure that this is where the "longest street in the world" is located. ;)

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Maybe the longest street in the world is the street we meet along the way

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I'm also (cautiously) optimistic, but it's worth noting that Ukraine was really lucky a year ago, as the RUSI report published late last year says: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022

If Russia is allowed to try invading again in the future, they'll probably avoid repeating exactly the same mistakes.

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An example of how Russia is able to adapt during this war: https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1634799680126058502

Complacency is not an option.

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This reminded me famous WW2/Stalingrad German joke:

“In August our battalion attacked the house from the west, making it into the foyer. In September, following a concentrated artillery barrage, we made it into the parlor. During October there was heavy fighting for the kitchen, but in November Russian tanks counterattacked through the bedroom. During December we withdrew into the hallway, and by January we were surrounded in the coat closet.”

Let's wish orcs the same level of success as their German predecessors.

btw: Lumumba streets were everywhere around soviet block, there was one in a small town where I was born

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Please don't take it as a personal attack: I try to steer clear of dehumanizing words, such as "orcs". It is difficult, I know, but I try my best and please join me in this effort. Thanks!

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"Russian propagandists keep repeating that the “meat grinders” hit Ukraine more than Russia. How is that even possible?"

My understanding is that might make sense in relative numbers, not absolute casualties. Russians lose more people than Ukrainians, but they might have more backups. This is the typical russian approach for centuries and hopefully it will fail this time.

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From what I am told by those who listen to Russian propaganda, it is not about relative numbers. "In war, the cannon is king, and in artillery Russia has the advantage, so it will win the war and inflict huge losses on the Ukrainians."

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ISW is more skeptical about Russia's manpower supply: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-26-2023

The demographics of Russia are different than the demographics of the USSR in 1941.

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1) I must admit that some mistakes are educational. A year or so ago I read an article that Russia would not attack Ukraine because it had prepared for a two-week war, which is a ridiculously short time to defeat a large country. Well... as far as I'm concerned the mistake was of the Russian command, not the journalist.

2) I can see that Putin's main objectives are already out of reach, but the question of relative losses concerns me. Russia is using up cannon fodder in the belief that even three times the losses on its side are not a problem, but bleeding the Ukrainians is. The 2022 ratio was supposed to be in Ukraine's favour, but it's something that's hard to sustain.

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I also recommend a great summary and checking the predictions by one military theorist - https://acoup.blog/2023/02/24/collections-one-year-into-the-war-in-ukraine/

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For those who support Ukraine in this war (I do, though perhaps with more "ifs" and "buts" than most people here), isn't it a bit unhealthy to focus on Russian mistakes and failed predictions, rather than learning from the failed predictions made by the Ukrainian/Western side? And they were not few. I remember that a year ago many people were convinced that the sanctions would destroy Russia, that Putin would soon be replaced in a coup, and that the introduction of mobilization would lead to a revolution.

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I started this blog because I saw many mistakes made clearly due to someone's unability to read Russian. I assume that if you are interested (in general) in this topic, you might also be interested in what the Russian (Polish, Ukrainian etc.) media are saying. I can't cover everything.

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