Who is afraid of Putin (in 2024)?

If Russia lost it's Black Sea fleet to a country that has no navy...

If I still have any reader who are NOT from Eastern Europy, I would really appreciate being westsplained (or africasplained, or latinamericasplained, or hindusplained, etc.) on how people from other parts of the world read headlines like the one below.

A random headline from YT channel “We Love Africa”. Do they really believe the West worries about these warnings?

What do you feel when reading about Russian “chilling warning?”. In the third year of the war, does anybody take these warnings seriously?

I live in the country that should be the first to go. And yet I don’t worry at all. If I find anything chilling watching youtube videos like this one, it’s more like “Netflix and chill”.

It’s not because I’m particularly brave, far from it. It’s just whenever Nebenzya, Lavrov or Medvedev start threatening us, I perceive them like a drunkard in a bar, yelling that “he will beat the crap of everyone who’s laughing at him”, but he can’t even stand up straight.

In reality, the super-duper-invincible S-500 system survived only two weeks in Crimea - the most modern Russian AA system was no match for a 30-years old ATACMS, via YT channel of Alex Mercouris

Russian army is too weak to conquer Ukraine, let alone Europe. Even if they still have some reserves, they need them for internal purposes. They have one terrorist act after another and there will be more of them - Russia no longer has enough troops to control Russia.

I don’t believe in nuclear blackmail either. Here’s my reasoning:

First, Russian elites became too dependent on the Western luxuries to think seriously of destroying the West. This is starkly different to the Cold War or World War II.

Goering did not own a condo in Kensington, so he was OK with the Blitz. Goebbels did not send his children to study at Harvard, Hitler did not buy Eva Braun a villa in Florida - etc.

Russian elites, including Putin, do all the above. They invested heavily in Western real estate. They sent their children, spouses, lovers, nieces etc. to the West, where most of them reside even today. They won’t nuke their own kin and their own property.

Soloviev is still unable to cope with the fact that he lost his villa in Italy and he keeps complaining even if it has nothing to do with the main topic of his show (here, he managed somehow to connect Assange with it). Would he fancy his villa being nuked? Via YT channel “Russian Media Monitor”

But for conversation sake, let’s assume that they would. Still, I’m not afraid.

In the case of an all-out “Russia vs NATO war”, I believe in NATO establishing full air superiority within the first hours. The reason being: Russian aircraft is crap.

It’s been 50 years when Soviet-produced fighters scored any victory over Western air forces. The West drew conclusions from the Vietnam war and changed everything, while the Soviets did not and got stuck in a dead end.

The results were seen in the next decades. If MiGs or Sukhoys scored any success, it was when fighting a a civilian airliner. Any actual air battle “MiGs versus Phantoms” (Iran/Iraq, Israel/Syria etc.) resulted in a turkey-shoot massacre of Soviet crap.

So I believe that in case of such open conflict, everything Russia will try to launch towards the West will be destroyed immediately. Usually already on the launching pad. Due to the Western domination in satellite reconnaissance, I don’t believe in Russian capability to execute a surprise attack.

But then again, I don’t think this bluff is serious. Russia cannot continue war without Chinese aid, which effectively turned them into a junior partner.

While China does have its own conflicting interests with the West, they are of trade nature. You don’t win a trade war by nuking your best customers. So at the end of the day, Xi Jinping will not allow his little Vladimir to do any nuclear shenanigans.

What I wrote here is considered more or less obvious in my country. But to my amazement, there are people in the West (and elsewhere) who still take Russian “chilling threats” seriously.

You’re right, it’s worse. At least in 1960’s we didn’t have to suffer the idiot influencers - via YT channel of Jimmy Dore

Case in study: couple of weeks ago, in a pathetic attempt to show some muscle, Russia sent its warships to Cuba. For me, it was laughable. This war has clearly demonstrated that if there is anything more crappy than Russian Air Force, it is Russian Navy.

In the beginning of the invasion, Russia announced a full naval blockade of Ukrainian ports. Under UN auspices, a special humanitarian exception was created, commonly called “the grain deal” - to allow ships carrying grain to pass.

In summer 2023, Russia announced its unilateral withdrawal from the deal. It was simply ignored by everyone else.

Oh, the fear! - via YT channel of twice convicted sexual offender Scott Ritter

Why? Because in the meantime, Russia has lost the ability of enforcing the blockade. Russian Black Sea Fleet lost so many ships - including the flagship, the (in)famous cruiser Moskva - that the last operational vessels escaped to the naval bases (and even there, they keep getting pounded by Ukrainian missiles and drones).

Today even the Russians no longer talk of “naval blockade”. Major shipping companies, such as Hapag-Lloyd, recently resumed their regular service to Ukraine. Shipping cargo volumes reach the pre-war levels.

The West is shaking with laugher so hard this guy can’t even put his lines straight - via YT channel of Larry Johnson

Let me reiterate: Russia has lost its Black Sea Navy to a country that has no navy. How do you expect their performance versus US Navy?

They can launch cruise missiles towards American cities? But such missiles would be destroyed within minutes after launch, along with the ships.

It seems so obvious and yet - Twitter and Youtube were full of alarmist headlines. “The West is in panic!” “US in real trouble!” “NATO unprecedented fear!”. This will end up with Armageddon, Judgement Day, Mad Max, Terminator and Roger Waters Global Tour!

The stupidest commentary was probably produced by Russell Brand, who recorded a long incoherent monologue (“SOMETHING HUGE IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN!”), where he kept repeating that “this was so easy to prevent!”. But he never explained why even bother with the Russian navy trip to Cuba. WHO CARES? WHY PREVENT IT? They came, they went, that’s it.

As it turned out, that “something huge” was actually Russell Brand’s mom

I noticed that “predicting” something “huge” is a typical strategy for shitfluencers on Youtube. Like a broken clock that shows the correct time twice a day, something huge will happen eventually, sooner or later. And since it’s impossible to be disgraced there (Scott Ritter is a twice sentenced sex offender, ffs!), nothing happens when their “predictions” turn out to be rubbish.

It’s happening, oh my God, it’s happening! - via YT channel of Russell Brand

But is it really only this - or maybe there is something in the bigger picture that I miss? Am I blessed with the presence of someone watching Brand, Ritter, Mercouris or MacGregor - and having a different opinion than me? Maybe there is someone who still takes Putin’s nuclear blackmail seriously?

I would really love to see a different point of view. My own opinion is based on the fact that I speak Russian, I follow Russian media and I spent a significant part of my life in the Russian sphere of influence. So I’m not surprised that “no navy” can be actually stronger than “Russian navy” - when Russian-made “Elektrobritva” razor is all you have, better start growing a beard.