To the point, as per uge. Axiom: Russia is a shitty country that for some reason loves to spread its shit over other countries. It's shitty politics and shitty economy. One thing it does well is scheming and false flagging, and of course creating useful idiots. Take a look at Putin's most recent trick: pushing ally Iran to push ally Hamas to attack Israel. He knew full well that any Israeli government, especially Netanyahu's, will go medieval on Gaza, and that those useful idiots, the western left (whose love of Russia didn't die with communism) will suddenly notice dying children. Somehow Arab children are way more important to them than Ukrainian ones. This lunacy - adding to the woke craze at American universities - will in turn push swing voters towards Trump. Khorosho!
Maybe khorosho for a while; the problem for Putin is that this will have only one consequence that he may not like so much: this is already waking Europe from its peaceful slumber. With Europe's economic potential, European rearmament will stop Russia's pipe dreams for good.
My interpretation is that this kind of news is targeted at a very special audience - people prone to "authoritarian bite" (per analogiam to Hegelian one), followers of social Darwinism and "geopolical" sectarianism. Argument based on "endless Russian human resource" appeal to them because it's simple. If it looks naive and simplistic to you, you're just not their target audience, but these yellow titles are just a fraction of Russian multi-vector propaganda, and each audience gets a recipe tailored for them. Chomskys of our world get theirs, mercantile souls get theirs etc.
But maybe it's often simpler -- because I think of our Polish youtuber Ator, and what hasn't he been scaring people with? A fake alien invasion and a sneaky takeover of railroads by Ukraine...? This sells on YT, so there is a corresponding supply of videos. Yes, politically it's driving voters to the alt-right, but I'm not sure some people don't watch it just as an entertainment.
In case you have a German-speaking friend and want to eastsplain him/her: I am constantly translating these notes into German. I'm currently finishing the translation of the previous note, this one will come next.
I am in support of a positive and affirmative peace for Ukraine.
If Russian actors see me say this (as I tend to believe they do), they may say: "So you don't care about us?"
In point of fact, I understand that a positive and affirmative peace for Ukraine requires there to be a positive and affirmative peace also for Russia.
Ukraine sits next to Russia. There are many connections and relationships between the peoples of these two countries. If anyone fantasizes that an answer to the ongoing Horror is to sever all of those ties, they need to get over it. Yesterday. Last year, or longer ago than that.
We are unhappy with Russia, with reason. With many reasons, of which more and more accumulate with every day of Putin's Not-So-Special Operation (that I guess Russians are calling a war, now). Eastern Europeans have, I guess, had particular reasons for unhappiness with Russia.
With all of that said, may we remember a weak and defeated Russia can continue to cause troubles, chaos, murder and mayhem all over the world. For this reason if for no other it is imperative that we want Russia to evolve in such a way that both Russia and Russia's neighbors can be happy.
Visualizing such a possibility may be difficult in the extreme; it is, nonetheless, necessary.
"Ukraine sits next to Russia. There are many connections and relationships between the peoples of these two countries. If anyone fantasizes that an answer to the ongoing Horror is to sever all of those ties"
-- Sure, threats coming from Medvedev and the like are silly and, in and of themselves, no reason for concern. Also, if anything, bowing to Russia's nuclear threats increases the long-term risk of actual nukes being used, as it encourages even more such threats and displays of nuclear might, that could at some point run out of control. Still, I wouldn't put the current nuclear threat at around zero. It would be if Putin were a reasonable man. Unfortunately, as things stand right now, he makes Khrushchev and Brezhnev seem like paragons of reason and moderation.
-- I believe that there was a brief period in the mid 1980s when the USSR caught up somewhat with the West in terms of aerial tech and doctrine. They were even running their own version of Topgun training programme, finally putting emphasis on unit flexibility and independent decision-making. It didn't last long though, and looking at the current situation, they seem to have reverted to the rigid and hierarchical model.
@nuclear war -- but that's not what China wants. Putin and company can scare the West, but if China sanctions them, it could be over with Russia. They have to reckon with Chinese opposition.
@Russia did some reforms in the military in the 21st century, but they were geared toward greater flexibility for rapid response, not full-scale war with NATO. Hence, after the attack on Ukraine, they retreated from the idea of a smaller, more mobile and flexible army, in favor of a return to the tradition of Peter the Great -- balancing an opponent's technical superiority with numbers and accepting large losses of their own.
Like it or not but facts are: Ukraine lost significant amount of soft power that had 3 years ago - protests of EU lorry drivers and farmers are visible sign of that. Ukraine lost significant portion of will to fight: conscripts trying to flight to EU rather than die, lack of volunteers to join the army etc. Summer offensive attempt from the last year fizzled despite Western tanks being sent. Energy shortages are much more severe than before - it will get worse during winter. Couple months without US hardware assistance shown that Europe alone is not able to meet the demand of the front. Trump just scored win that he needed and his election seems at least plausible. Putin is still here - the Wagner guy not.
Codependency of elites is futile way of preventing the war. We know this since 1914.
To the point, as per uge. Axiom: Russia is a shitty country that for some reason loves to spread its shit over other countries. It's shitty politics and shitty economy. One thing it does well is scheming and false flagging, and of course creating useful idiots. Take a look at Putin's most recent trick: pushing ally Iran to push ally Hamas to attack Israel. He knew full well that any Israeli government, especially Netanyahu's, will go medieval on Gaza, and that those useful idiots, the western left (whose love of Russia didn't die with communism) will suddenly notice dying children. Somehow Arab children are way more important to them than Ukrainian ones. This lunacy - adding to the woke craze at American universities - will in turn push swing voters towards Trump. Khorosho!
Maybe khorosho for a while; the problem for Putin is that this will have only one consequence that he may not like so much: this is already waking Europe from its peaceful slumber. With Europe's economic potential, European rearmament will stop Russia's pipe dreams for good.
One can, in fact, oppose both Ukrainian and Palestinian children being murdered.
"Naaaah, in America we don't count dead bodies between Germany and Russia. Aren't they all Slavs anyway?".
That doesn't accurately describe many Western leftists I know, who are equally opposed to both war criminals.
I hope you’re right. Perhaps I know all the wrong people ( I'm old).
My interpretation is that this kind of news is targeted at a very special audience - people prone to "authoritarian bite" (per analogiam to Hegelian one), followers of social Darwinism and "geopolical" sectarianism. Argument based on "endless Russian human resource" appeal to them because it's simple. If it looks naive and simplistic to you, you're just not their target audience, but these yellow titles are just a fraction of Russian multi-vector propaganda, and each audience gets a recipe tailored for them. Chomskys of our world get theirs, mercantile souls get theirs etc.
But maybe it's often simpler -- because I think of our Polish youtuber Ator, and what hasn't he been scaring people with? A fake alien invasion and a sneaky takeover of railroads by Ukraine...? This sells on YT, so there is a corresponding supply of videos. Yes, politically it's driving voters to the alt-right, but I'm not sure some people don't watch it just as an entertainment.
In case you have a German-speaking friend and want to eastsplain him/her: I am constantly translating these notes into German. I'm currently finishing the translation of the previous note, this one will come next.
You can find my translations here: https://polenblog.cmosnet.eu
I am in support of a positive and affirmative peace for Ukraine.
If Russian actors see me say this (as I tend to believe they do), they may say: "So you don't care about us?"
In point of fact, I understand that a positive and affirmative peace for Ukraine requires there to be a positive and affirmative peace also for Russia.
Ukraine sits next to Russia. There are many connections and relationships between the peoples of these two countries. If anyone fantasizes that an answer to the ongoing Horror is to sever all of those ties, they need to get over it. Yesterday. Last year, or longer ago than that.
We are unhappy with Russia, with reason. With many reasons, of which more and more accumulate with every day of Putin's Not-So-Special Operation (that I guess Russians are calling a war, now). Eastern Europeans have, I guess, had particular reasons for unhappiness with Russia.
With all of that said, may we remember a weak and defeated Russia can continue to cause troubles, chaos, murder and mayhem all over the world. For this reason if for no other it is imperative that we want Russia to evolve in such a way that both Russia and Russia's neighbors can be happy.
Visualizing such a possibility may be difficult in the extreme; it is, nonetheless, necessary.
"Ukraine sits next to Russia. There are many connections and relationships between the peoples of these two countries. If anyone fantasizes that an answer to the ongoing Horror is to sever all of those ties"
Russia severed most of these ties.
I mostly agree, just with two caveats:
-- Sure, threats coming from Medvedev and the like are silly and, in and of themselves, no reason for concern. Also, if anything, bowing to Russia's nuclear threats increases the long-term risk of actual nukes being used, as it encourages even more such threats and displays of nuclear might, that could at some point run out of control. Still, I wouldn't put the current nuclear threat at around zero. It would be if Putin were a reasonable man. Unfortunately, as things stand right now, he makes Khrushchev and Brezhnev seem like paragons of reason and moderation.
-- I believe that there was a brief period in the mid 1980s when the USSR caught up somewhat with the West in terms of aerial tech and doctrine. They were even running their own version of Topgun training programme, finally putting emphasis on unit flexibility and independent decision-making. It didn't last long though, and looking at the current situation, they seem to have reverted to the rigid and hierarchical model.
@nuclear war -- but that's not what China wants. Putin and company can scare the West, but if China sanctions them, it could be over with Russia. They have to reckon with Chinese opposition.
@Russia did some reforms in the military in the 21st century, but they were geared toward greater flexibility for rapid response, not full-scale war with NATO. Hence, after the attack on Ukraine, they retreated from the idea of a smaller, more mobile and flexible army, in favor of a return to the tradition of Peter the Great -- balancing an opponent's technical superiority with numbers and accepting large losses of their own.
Like it or not but facts are: Ukraine lost significant amount of soft power that had 3 years ago - protests of EU lorry drivers and farmers are visible sign of that. Ukraine lost significant portion of will to fight: conscripts trying to flight to EU rather than die, lack of volunteers to join the army etc. Summer offensive attempt from the last year fizzled despite Western tanks being sent. Energy shortages are much more severe than before - it will get worse during winter. Couple months without US hardware assistance shown that Europe alone is not able to meet the demand of the front. Trump just scored win that he needed and his election seems at least plausible. Putin is still here - the Wagner guy not.
Codependency of elites is futile way of preventing the war. We know this since 1914.
Europe is expanding its weapons production. Stories like this one are numerous: https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/thales-expands-laser-guided-rocket-production-five-fold/
In a few years, we will be producing way more ammunition and weapons than now.
BTW, Russia is losing an important friend in Africa: https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/wolta-rpa-nie-wysle-fregaty-na-parade-w-rosji-za-to-zaprasza-joego-bidena/pjy7znx?utm_source=livebar&utm_campaign=newsy_sg